Possible scenario
GOP Blitz Works
38% Chance
Trump's October travel schedule helps Republicans nationalize the midterm map around inflation, immigration, and loyalty to his second-term agenda. The most likely upside case for the GOP is incremental: better turnout signals in Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Alabama, and Oklahoma rather than a decisive break in the Senate map.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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