Possible scenario
Runoff Is Preserved
46% Chance
Brazil’s electoral court rejects or shelves both disqualification requests, preserving the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. This is the most likely path because the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral has strong incentives to avoid deciding the presidency by injunction days before the vote.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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