Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Challenge Prevails
16% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro’s side persuades the court to revisit Lula’s eligibility, citing alleged procedural defects, abuse of incumbency, or new campaign-finance claims. This is less likely because Lula’s 2021 annulment and 2022 victory created strong precedent, but it remains a high-impact legal tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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