Lula Challenge Prevails

Lula’s campaign persuades the electoral court that Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy is legally tainted by the prior Bolsonaro ban, campaign coordination, or abuse-of-power findings. This path is plausible but less likely because it would remove a runoff candidate days before voting and would trigger immediate appeals.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.