Possible scenario
Selective Earnings Market
28% Chance
The rally continues but becomes more selective as investors distinguish between revenue growth and margin quality. Companies with pricing power and disciplined spending outperform, while weaker guidance is punished quickly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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