Possible scenario
Earnings Breadth Extends
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the early earnings tone remains constructive and breadth stays wide across the S&P 500. Low recession odds and improving company guidance offset lingering uncertainty around inflation and the Federal Reserve.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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