Possible scenario
AI Spending Test Fails
18% Chance
A less likely but important downside path is that investors refocus on the cost of AI investment rather than revenue upside. If major platform companies signal heavier 2027 capex or slower monetization, the current broad rally loses momentum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Telecommunications -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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