Talks Stall

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Moscow invitation proves more tactical than transformative. Ukraine refuses to send Zelenskyy to Russia, Moscow resists neutral-venue terms or front-line monitoring, and the negotiation channel narrows without fully closing.

What it moves

Energy+0.2%
Finance−0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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