Escalatory Breakdown

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The security-guarantee offer is viewed by Kyiv and its allies as a propaganda maneuver or an attempt to force Zelenskyy into an unacceptable venue. The collapse is followed by intensified battlefield activity or long-range strikes, raising geopolitical risk premiums.

What it moves

Energy+1.6%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.9%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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