Possible scenario
Limited Ceasefire Framework
26%
+0.9%
Putin’s security-guarantee offer becomes part of a broader negotiation over a temporary ceasefire and verification arrangements. The most realistic near-term outcome is a limited framework rather than a final settlement, because territorial status, sanctions, NATO links, and long-term guarantees remain unresolved.
What it moves
- Energy−1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals+1.0%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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