Possible scenario
Red Sea Escalation
25% Chance
The Houthis respond to the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish deployment by increasing threats and testing maritime defenses around the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia avoids declaring a broader war, but shipping and oil markets price a higher disruption risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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