Possible scenario
Deterrent Deployment Holds
45% Chance
Pakistan and Turkey move limited forces, advisers, and air-defense assets into Saudi Arabia, but the deployment remains framed as defensive. Riyadh uses the rapid-deployment mechanism to signal resolve to the Houthis and Iran without initiating combat operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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