Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
18% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly to prevent the deployment from becoming a trigger for conflict. Riyadh keeps allied forces in the kingdom but pairs the show of force with back-channel guarantees about shipping and cross-border attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.