Possible scenario
Temporary Corridor Disruption
25% Chance
A follow-on strike or credible threat prompts Ukraine and shipowners to temporarily suspend departures from the main Black Sea ports. The disruption is serious but still treated as reversible because Danube export routes and Romanian logistics remain available.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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