Possible scenario
Limited Deconfliction Deal
18% Chance
Turkey, the UN, and commercial shipping groups push both sides toward a narrow safety arrangement for grain and non-military cargo. Russia avoids calling it a revival of the 2022 grain deal, but tacitly reduces strikes on merchant shipping to limit diplomatic fallout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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