Possible scenario
Sustained Maritime Harassment
45% Chance
Russia continues intermittent drone or missile attacks against vessels using Ukrainian ports, but avoids a formal blockade or repeated mass-casualty incidents. Ukraine keeps the independent Black Sea corridor open with rerouting, air-defense coverage, and higher war-risk insurance costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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