Possible scenario
Service Restored Quickly
34% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a rapid de-escalation after public pressure from Kyiv, Congress, and NATO capitals. The Pentagon or White House clarifies funding and operating terms with SpaceX, allowing Starlink access for Ukrainian military communications to resume with limits on offensive drone use.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Telecommunications +0.7%
Tickers
- +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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