Possible scenario
Europe Replaces Washington
22% Chance
European governments conclude that US-controlled commercial infrastructure is no longer reliable for Ukraine. The EU, Britain, Poland, France, and Germany move to fund alternative satellite communications and drone-control networks, reducing Kyiv's dependence on Starlink over time.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.6%
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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