Possible scenario
Cutoff Persists
29% Chance
SpaceX and the Trump administration hold their line, arguing that Starlink cannot be used for offensive drone operations. Ukrainian forces experience near-term operational disruption, and Russia attempts to exploit the communications gap before alternative systems arrive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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