Possible scenario
Trade Shock Slows
20% Chance
China's growth mix remains vulnerable because earlier export strength has increased exposure to foreign tariff action. If external demand or trade policy turns less favorable, Q4 momentum could weaken even with domestic policy support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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