Possible scenario
Target Achieved
45% Chance
China remains on course to meet Beijing's lowered 2026 growth target near 4.5%. Industrial output, public investment and selective liquidity support offset weak household demand, keeping the policy stance supportive but not urgent.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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