Possible scenario
Domestic Demand Drags
25% Chance
The headline GDP figure masks a weak household sector after consumer spending fell earlier in 2026. Growth stays near target, but markets focus on the quality of activity and the risk that property and consumption remain a drag.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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