Possible scenario
Recovery Extends Into Q4
45% Chance
The September PMI jump to 56.5 proves to be the start of a broader cyclical improvement rather than a one-month rebound. Earlier RBNZ rate cuts, stabilizing domestic demand, and healthier order books keep manufacturing expansion above trend through late 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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