Possible scenario
External Demand Fades
20% Chance
The September PMI strength is partly offset by weakening external demand, especially from China and other trade-exposed Asian markets. Manufacturers remain in expansion, but forward orders soften and commodity-linked sentiment weakens.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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