Possible scenario
RBNZ Easing Slows
25% Chance
The strong PMI reduces pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep cutting rates quickly. Markets begin to price a more cautious easing path if activity and inflation indicators remain firmer than expected.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.