Possible scenario
Modified Senate Deal
30% Chance
Rather than passing the House bill unchanged, Senate negotiators seek a compromise that delays implementation, allows agency review, or gives states limited flexibility. This is a realistic path because it lets Cotton claim concessions while giving Trump a visible win on ending clock changes.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.