Possible scenario
Clean Passage Advances
20% Chance
Cotton relents or is bypassed after sustained pressure from Trump, the House, and outside supporters of permanent daylight saving time. The Senate passes a clean version, creating the clearest path to enactment since the 2022 Senate approval.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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