Possible scenario
GOP Money Converts
35% Chance
Republican super PACs and allied billionaires, including Ken Griffin and other major GOP donors, successfully turn the 4-to-1 spending advantage into marginal gains in expensive House and Senate races. The most likely result is not a landslide, but a narrow Republican advantage in control of at least one chamber.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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