Possible scenario
Democratic Rebound
30% Chance
Democratic committees and allied groups recover from donor hesitation by leaning on late small-dollar fundraising, candidate-specific appeals, and abortion-rights messaging. The GOP spending advantage remains large but becomes less decisive in districts where voters are already polarized.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.6%
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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