Possible scenario
Ad Saturation Gridlock
20% Chance
Both parties spend heavily into an already saturated media environment, and persuasion remains weak because voters have largely fixed views of Trump, Congress, inflation, and abortion. The most probable result under this scenario is divided government or razor-thin control with no clear mandate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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