Possible scenario
Sustained Winter Strikes
45% Chance
Russia continues broad missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian transmission nodes, extending the campaign from Kyiv toward Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk. The most likely path is a prolonged attempt to degrade civilian power before winter without a direct NATO military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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