Possible scenario
NATO Border Spillover
18% Chance
Strikes in western Ukraine increase the risk of debris, airspace violations or accidental impacts near Poland, Slovakia and Romania. Even without intentional Russian action against NATO, the proximity of attacks to alliance territory raises the probability of emergency consultations and additional air-defense deployments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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