Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
25% Chance
The grid campaign accelerates Western military aid rather than producing a decisive Russian advantage. Ukraine receives additional Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T interceptors, improving protection for western substations and logistics routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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