Possible scenario
Sanctions Escalate
25% Chance
Washington could broaden the measures if the ICC refuses to slow the Netanyahu and Gallant cases. This would deepen the split with close allies and raise compliance risk for banks, law firms, NGOs and governments that interact with the court.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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