Possible scenario
ICC Presses Case
20% Chance
The ICC is likely to continue its proceedings despite US sanctions, especially after public backing from allied states. The next phase would focus on member-state obligations, travel exposure for Israeli officials, and whether European governments would enforce warrants if tested.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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