Possible scenario
Allied Resistance Contains
40% Chance
The most likely path is that US allies publicly reject the sanctions while limiting the confrontation to diplomatic and legal channels. Washington keeps the measures formally in place, but enforcement is narrowed through licenses, informal guidance, or selective application to avoid a rupture with NATO and G7 partners.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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