Possible scenario
Severe Kyiv Disruption
18% Chance
Further Russian strikes seriously reduce usable bridge capacity and overwhelm reserve crossings. This would create a localized humanitarian and logistics crisis in Kyiv, though still short of a broader NATO-Russia escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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