Possible scenario
Crossings Stabilize Kyiv
42% Chance
Ukraine's reserve crossings, traffic controls, and emergency ferry or pontoon links restore enough capacity across the Dnipro to prevent a sustained paralysis of Kyiv. Russia may continue probing attacks, but Ukrainian air defenses and dispersal of crossing points make a repeat citywide shutdown harder.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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