Possible scenario
Intermittent Russian Pressure
32% Chance
Russia continues using drones and missiles to harass Kyiv's bridge network and reserve crossing routes without achieving a decisive cutoff. The most likely effect is rolling disruption rather than a complete severing of movement across the Dnipro.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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