Possible scenario
Wider Gulf Escalation
23% Chance
The conflict broadens from tanker harassment to direct threats against Gulf energy infrastructure or a sharper U.S.-Iran proxy confrontation. This would be a material macro shock because it raises the odds of temporary export disruptions from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, or the UAE.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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