Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
25% Chance
Regional actors use backchannels through Oman, Qatar, or Washington to prevent further escalation. Even without a durable peace agreement, credible signals that Hormuz will remain open would remove part of the war-risk premium embedded in Brent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Consumer Services +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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