Possible scenario
Contained Gulf Disruption
42% Chance
The most likely path is that tanker risk remains elevated but does not turn into a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Navy, Saudi, Emirati, and commercial shipping measures reduce the probability of catastrophic supply loss while keeping a geopolitical premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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