Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Intensifies
25% Chance
Moscow responds with a larger missile and drone barrage against Ukrainian power, rail, and storage infrastructure. This remains below a direct NATO-Russia escalation, but it raises near-term war-risk pricing and defense-sector interest.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.