Possible scenario
Contained Moscow Disruption
45% Chance
Russian emergency services contain damage at the Moscow oil hub and airport operations normalize within a day. The strike reinforces Ukraine's ability to hit high-value Russian logistics targets, but markets treat it as another episode in an already-established drone campaign rather than a decisive escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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