Possible scenario
Energy Campaign Broadens
20% Chance
Ukraine follows the Moscow oil-hub strike with additional attacks on Russian refined-product storage, pipeline, or rail-loading infrastructure. The key market question becomes whether these raids reduce exports or mainly force costly internal rerouting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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