Mediated Reopening

PUK and KDP intermediaries, likely under pressure from Baghdad, UNAMI, and U.S. diplomats in Erbil, reach a procedural compromise that lets the Kurdistan Parliament reconvene without either party conceding the broader power-sharing dispute. This is the most likely path because both parties benefit from avoiding a security spiral while preserving bargaining leverage over salaries, oil revenues, and cabinet posts.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.