Baghdad Power Play

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government uses the dispute to expand federal leverage over Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, tying budget transfers, salary payments, or legal recognition to institutional normalization. This is less likely than local mediation, but Iraq’s newly formed government has incentives to assert control over KRG fiscal and oil arrangements.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.