Possible scenario
Selective Freeze Persists
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is a continued but not disorderly IPO slowdown, with issuers waiting for clearer Treasury-rate and valuation signals. The seven Q3 postponements reinforce that demand exists only at lower clearing prices, especially for growth and capital-intensive issuers.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- NDAQ-0.4%
- GS-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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