Possible scenario
Republicans Distance Themselves
27%
0.0%
Republican leaders conclude that Musk’s scale of spending produced reputational costs without preventing major House losses. The party does not reject him outright, but candidates and committees diversify donors and message discipline before the 2028 cycle.
What it moves
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.1%
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.