Possible scenario
Pakistan Border Spillover
18% Chance
Iran links the Saravan clash to militant sanctuaries in Pakistan's Balochistan province, reviving the pattern that produced the January 2024 exchange of strikes. Both governments have incentives to avoid open conflict, but miscalculation risk rises if Tehran conducts operations near or across the border.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.